Vance Edges Out Newsom in Key Battleground Poll, Signaling Strong Path to 2028 Nomination

September 5, 2025 - A fresh poll pitting Vice President J.D. Vance against California Governor Gavin Newsom in a hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup delivers encouraging news for Vance, with him leading across five of seven crucial battleground states and holding a slim overall edge. Conducted by Plymouth Union Public Research from August 8-10, 2025, the survey of 1,000 likely voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin underscores Vance's growing appeal in regions that could decide the next election, positioning him as a formidable heir to President Trump's America First legacy.

In the head-to-head contest, Vance garners 51% support compared to Newsom's 49%, with Vance securing victories in Arizona (+5), Georgia (+3), Michigan (+4), North Carolina (+6), and Pennsylvania (+2). Newsom edges ahead in Nevada (+1) and Wisconsin (+3), but the results highlight Vance's crossover strength: He captures 9% of Democratic voters, while Newsom draws only 7% from Republicans. This dynamic suggests Vance's Rust Belt roots and populist messaging resonate beyond party lines, particularly in manufacturing-heavy states battered by past trade deals.

The poll also reveals stark contrasts in public perception. Vance enjoys a slight net positive favorability, with 27% viewing him very favorably against 45% unfavorable, reflecting his visibility as President Trump's right-hand man on issues like border security and economic nationalism. Newsom, meanwhile, remains unknown to 25% of voters, and 24% hold a very unfavorable view, likely tied to California's struggles with homelessness, high taxes, and progressive policies that have driven population exodus. Other potential Democratic contenders fare similarly mixed: Kamala Harris at 49% favorable/46% unfavorable, Tim Walz at 43%/37% with 20% unfamiliar, Pete Buttigieg at 39%/32% with 30% unfamiliar, and Josh Shapiro at 39%/25% with 36% unfamiliar.

Beyond the matchup, the survey gauges enthusiasm for President Trump's economic agenda, with 66% backing his America First policies—including 41% of Democrats and 36% of Harris's 2024 supporters. Overwhelming majorities support requiring foreign companies to manufacture in the U.S. (80%) and imposing tougher rules on Chinese firms (nearly 75%), aligning with Vance's advocacy for tariffs and domestic investment to revive American jobs.

These findings build on Vance's momentum since joining the administration in January 2025. As a former Ohio senator and author of "Hillbilly Elegy," Vance has emerged as a vocal defender of working-class Americans, championing initiatives like the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that extended tax cuts, boosted border funding, and eliminated taxes on tips. His role in tiebreaking Senate votes and diplomatic trips has elevated his profile, earning praise from President Trump, who in August 2025 called him the "most likely" successor, noting, "He's the vice president." Trump has even floated a potential ticket with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, suggesting a powerhouse duo to carry forward the MAGA movement.

Looking ahead to 2028, Vance's prospects appear robust, backed by a string of polls affirming his dominance in the GOP field. An Emerson College survey from June 2025 showed him commanding 46% in a hypothetical Republican primary, far ahead of Rubio at 12% and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 9%. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. followed at 5%, with Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley each at 2%. Undecided voters stood at 17%, leaving room for Vance to consolidate support as President Trump's term progresses.

A July 2025 Emerson poll further bolstered Vance's standing, with him defeating Newsom, Buttigieg, and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in head-to-head scenarios. He also topped the CPAC straw poll earlier this year, capturing 61% and outpacing figures like Steve Bannon (12%) and DeSantis. These results reflect Vance's alignment with core Republican priorities: cracking down on illegal immigration, promoting energy independence, and countering China's influence—issues where he has been instrumental in the administration's successes, such as deploying National Guard troops to curb urban crime and negotiating trade deals.

Challenges remain, of course. Vance's favorability has dipped slightly since inauguration, hovering around 41% favorable and 47% unfavorable in recent aggregates, amid scrutiny over his past comments and the administration's ambitious reforms. A McLaughlin and Associates poll from June 2025 placed him at 36% in a crowded GOP field, leading Donald Trump Jr. at 14%, but highlighting the potential for family dynasties or dark horses like Gabbard or Youngkin to emerge. On the Democratic side, Newsom leads early primary polls with 25%, followed by Buttigieg at 16% and Harris at 13%, setting up a contrast between Vance's heartland conservatism and coastal progressivism.

Yet, with President Trump's approval at 46% in the latest Emerson national poll—up from earlier lows—and the economy showing signs of rebound under pro-growth policies, Vance is well-positioned to inherit a winning coalition. His youth, at 41 by 2028, offers a fresh face to sustain the movement, free from the term limits binding President Trump. As midterm elections approach in 2026, Vance's fundraising prowess as RNC finance chair and stump speeches in swing districts could secure Republican majorities, paving a smoother road to the nomination.

If these trends hold, 2028 could see Vance channeling President Trump's energy to defend American sovereignty against globalist challengers like Newsom. For now, the poll serves as a timely boost, affirming that Vance's blend of intellect, grit, and loyalty makes him the man to watch in the race to keep America great.