U.S. Murder Rate and Overall Violent Crime Plunge to Historic Lows in Largest Recorded Declines

The United States recorded one of the most significant declines in lethal violence in its modern history in 2025, with the national murder rate falling to levels not seen in decades and continuing to drop through the first half of 2026.

According to the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program data released in August 2026, murders and nonnegligent manslaughter offenses decreased an estimated 18.1 percent from 2024 to 2025. The resulting murder rate of 4.1 per 100,000 inhabitants tied the lowest figures recorded by the FBI in 1955 and 1956. Independent analyses described the year-over-year drop as the largest single-year decline since the agency began systematic national tracking in the 1930s. Preliminary real-time data from hundreds of law enforcement agencies had already pointed to a roughly 20 percent reduction in the early months of 2025, with analysts projecting it would prove the steepest annual fall ever measured.

The Council on Criminal Justice and crime data analysts, including Jeff Asher of AH Datalytics, estimated that the 2025 national homicide rate likely reached its lowest point since at least 1900 once final figures were confirmed. Homicides had already fallen substantially in 2024, and the 2025 plunge extended a multi-year downward trend that began after a sharp spike during the early COVID-19 period. Between 2019 and 2020, homicides rose by roughly 30 percent—the largest one-year increase on record—prompting concerns that elevated violence might become entrenched. Instead, rates began declining in the second half of 2022 and accelerated thereafter.

The improvement has continued into 2026. A mid-year analysis by the Council on Criminal Justice of data from dozens of major cities found that reported homicides were 18 percent lower in the first six months of 2026 than in the same period of 2025, equating to hundreds fewer killings in the sampled jurisdictions. Several cities posted dramatic reductions, including 100 percent drops in some smaller locations and double-digit declines in larger ones such as Washington, D.C., New York City, and Los Angeles. Overall, the average homicide rate in these cities stood more than 50 percent below its recent peak in 2022 and roughly 30 percent below 2019 levels. Analysts project that the full-year 2026 national rate is on track for another historic low.

Broader violent crime categories also fell sharply in 2025. Robbery declined about 18.5 percent, aggravated assault about 7.2 percent, and rape about 7.6 percent, contributing to what the FBI described as the largest year-to-year drop in overall violent crime rates since national estimations began. Property crimes, including motor vehicle theft, registered substantial decreases as well.

The declines have been widespread but not uniform. While the majority of tracked cities saw reductions, a minority recorded increases from already low baselines or experienced temporary spikes. Experts caution that the precise drivers remain complex and not fully isolated. Possible contributing factors cited in analyses include shifts in policing practices, community-based violence interruption programs, changes in the illegal gun market, post-pandemic social stabilization, and broader economic or demographic trends. No single policy or jurisdiction accounts for the national pattern, which has appeared across cities with varying political leadership and enforcement strategies.

The scale of the reduction carries clear human consequences. Analysts have noted that the cumulative drop since the early-2020s peak has meant thousands fewer lives lost to homicide over successive years. As final 2025 data solidify the historic nature of the decline and mid-2026 figures point to further improvement, researchers emphasize the need to better understand the mechanisms behind the progress so that gains can be sustained.