Trump Gives “50/50” Odds on Iran Deal or Renewed Strikes as Talks Stall

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump said Friday the odds of reaching a comprehensive nuclear and security deal with Iran or resuming U.S. military strikes are currently “50/50,” signaling deep frustration with the stalled state of indirect negotiations.

Trump made the assessment while speaking to reporters before leaving the White House. He noted that Iran’s latest responses through Pakistani intermediaries offered almost nothing new and continued to demand full sanctions relief and an immediate end to the U.S. naval blockade before addressing its nuclear program.

“We’re at about 50/50 right now,” Trump said. “They either want to make a real deal or we’ll have to go back to doing what we were doing before — and we were doing very well.”

The comments reflect growing impatience within the administration. While the fragile ceasefire brokered in early April has prevented all-out war, it has been repeatedly violated by Iranian-backed attacks on shipping and proxy activity in Lebanon. The U.S. naval blockade remains fully in effect, severely restricting Iran’s oil exports.

Trump reiterated that any acceptable agreement must include verifiable limits on Iran’s uranium enrichment, the removal or down-blending of its highly enriched uranium stockpile, an end to support for groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis, and guaranteed safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has shown little willingness to compromise on these core issues, instead insisting the nuclear file be handled separately and later. This position has led senior U.S. officials to conclude that Tehran is not negotiating seriously and is using talks primarily to buy time.

Several Republican senators, including Roger Wicker, have publicly urged Trump to resume targeted strikes on Iranian military infrastructure if progress does not improve quickly. The administration continues to keep military options active while maintaining maximum economic pressure through the blockade.

The situation remains fluid with no new round of substantive talks scheduled. Oil prices edged higher Friday on renewed uncertainty about the waterway that carries roughly 20% of global seaborne oil. Trump has warned repeatedly that further Iranian provocations will be met with overwhelming force.