RealClearPolitics’ Tom Bevan Tells Newsmax Early Polls May Have Overstated Democrat Support; Republican Turnout Is the Key

RealClearPolitics co-founder and president Tom Bevan told Newsmax on Friday that summer polling in several key Senate races may have overestimated Democrat strength because many Republican voters were less engaged at the time.

Appearing on the network’s “Wake Up America,” Bevan said Democrats were more eager to participate in surveys while Republicans were either ignoring pollsters or expressing lower enthusiasm. “In these earlier polls, you have Democrats answering the phone, ‘Yes, I’m excited to vote; yes, I’m going to vote for the Democratic candidate,’” he said. “And you have Republicans that are either ignoring pollsters or telling them that, ‘I’m not that enthusiastic, I don’t know.’”

He described an enthusiasm gap that favored Democrats in earlier surveys but noted recent signs that Republicans are becoming more engaged. “Republicans are starting to come home in some of these particularly red states,” Bevan said. “Last two polls out of Texas were good. Good poll out of Kansas, as you mentioned, and a couple other states where it looks like Republicans are starting to perk up a little bit.”

Bevan pointed to RealClearPolitics averages showing Republican candidates narrowing gaps in races such as Texas, where Attorney General Ken Paxton has moved within a few points of Democrat James Talarico, and Kansas, where Sen. Roger Marshall holds a lead of less than one point over Democrat Adam Hamilton. He said a two- or three-point shift in Republicans’ favor—whether from higher turnout or prior overestimation of Democrats—would allow the party to win the majority of contested Senate races.

Bevan noted that President Trump has been campaigning in red states including Texas, Nebraska, Ohio, Alaska, and Montana in an effort to activate the MAGA base. “If Republicans just turn out, they’re going to win all those races,” he said. Even if Democrats win in Michigan, Maine, and North Carolina, that would not necessarily give them Senate control if Republicans turn out in the red states, according to Bevan.

He added that the final weeks of the campaign will show where candidates are spending their time and money. Republicans are currently directing resources into red-state races to shore up their positions in both the Senate and House. Bevan said it remains to be seen until Election Day whether the polls accurately reflected the electorate or whether Republican turnout will close the gaps.

Election Day is November 3. Bevan has previously noted that polls have underestimated Republican support in several recent cycles when Trump was on the ballot, though midterm results have been more mixed.