NRCC Internal Polling Shows Republicans Leading or Tied in Five Democrat-Held Districts Trump Carried in 2024
Conducted by the GOP-aligned firm co/efficient from April 25-29 among likely general election voters, the surveys covered 842 to 982 respondents per district with margins of error between 3.1 and 3.5 points.
Tommy Flynn
WASHINGTON — The National Republican Congressional Committee released its first internal battleground polls of the 2026 cycle Thursday, revealing Republicans either leading or tied in five competitive House districts currently held by Democrats — all of which President Donald Trump won in 2024.
Conducted by the GOP-aligned firm co/efficient from April 25-29 among likely general election voters, the surveys covered 842 to 982 respondents per district with margins of error between 3.1 and 3.5 points.
In Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, an open seat, Republican Paul LePage leads Democratic candidates 50 percent to 40 percent. In Washington’s 3rd District, Republican John Braun leads incumbent Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez by seven points. Republican Eric Flores leads incumbent Rep. Vicente Gonzalez 41-40 in Texas’ 34th District. In North Carolina’s 1st District, Republican Laurie Buckhout is tied with incumbent Rep. Don Davis at 41 percent each. Incumbent Rep. Gabe Vasquez holds a narrow 43-41 edge over Republican Greg Cunningham in New Mexico’s 2nd District.
NRCC Chairman Rep. Richard Hudson, R-N.C., said the results show House Democrats facing serious challenges in districts that already rejected their party’s presidential ticket last cycle. The polling underscores the committee’s strategy of expanding the map and forcing Democrats onto defense, he added.
Republicans currently hold a slim House majority and are targeting multiple Democratic seats to expand their advantage heading into the midterms. The NRCC has maintained a cash-on-hand advantage over its Democratic counterpart in recent quarters.
Democrats dismissed the findings. A DCCC spokesperson called the polls manipulated push polling and predicted Democrats would retake the House in November.
The NRCC described the data as an early snapshot of a favorable environment for House Republicans driven by strong candidate recruitment, fundraising, and President Trump’s leadership.
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