New Oregon Poll Puts Republican Drazan Two Points Ahead of Gov. Kotek

A DHM Research survey of 600 likely voters, taken Sept. 3–9 for the business group Grow Oregon, shows Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan at 45 percent and Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek at 43 percent in the Nov. 3 governor’s race, with Pacific Green Party candidate Brett Smith at 4 percent and 13 percent undecided. The two-point gap is inside the poll’s plus-or-minus 4-point margin of error. Oregon has not elected a Republican governor since 1982. Democrats have held the office since 1986. Kotek beat Drazan in 2022, 47 percent to 43.5 percent, with independent Betsy Johnson at about 9 percent. Cook Political Report moved the race from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat on Sept. 10. Race to the WH lists it as a toss-up. Silver Bulletin’s average through Sept. 9 is a tie at 44.9 percent each.

The same DHM sample found Kotek’s job approval at 37 percent and disapproval at 59 percent. Fifty-eight percent said Oregon is on the wrong track. Affordability was the top concern at 87 percent, followed by education, housing, taxes, homelessness, and crime. A June Public Opinion Strategies poll for Drazan’s campaign had her at 48 percent to Kotek’s 44 percent among 600 registered voters. A May Hoffman Research survey of likely voters was tied at 45–45. An early FM3 Democratic poll in February had Kotek ahead 45–40. DHM pollster John Horvick noted that Drazan also led late in 2022 before Kotek closed. Drazan campaign strategist Trey Rosser said, “This poll confirms what we already see on the ground: Oregonians are ready for change, and they see Christine as the leader who can deliver it.” He said Kotek “made big promises on homelessness, housing, education, and affordability, but today, Oregonians are paying more, getting less, and watching the same problems get worse.” Kotek communications director Federico Araujo said, “There are still a lot of voters who are undecided in this race, but the choice couldn’t be any clearer: Christine Drazan is ready to open the door to Trump’s agenda and Governor Kotek is fighting every day to protect Oregonians from federal overreach and harm.” Election Day is 44 days away.