Lower Republican Turnout Relative to 2024 Helped Drive 2026 Midterm Results

Preliminary figures from the University of Florida’s Election Lab put turnout in the November 3, 2026, midterm elections at roughly 48.8 to 49.4 percent of the voting-eligible population, or about 122.7 to 124.3 million ballots counted. That rate is the second-highest midterm turnout in more than a century, trailing only 2018, but it remains approximately 15 percentage points below the roughly 64 percent turnout recorded in the 2024 presidential election, when 155 to 158 million people voted.

Midterm elections have long produced lower absolute turnout than the preceding presidential year. What stood out in 2026 was the relative composition of the electorate. National exit polls, including those conducted for NBC News, showed Democrats comprising about 34 percent of voters and Republicans about 33 percent. In 2024, Republicans made up roughly 35 percent of the electorate while Democrats accounted for about 31 percent. The shift meant Democratic voters formed a larger share of the midterm electorate than they had in the presidential year, while the Republican share declined.

Early and mail voting patterns reinforced the same picture in states that report ballots by party registration. In Florida, registered Republicans accounted for 40.2 percent of the roughly 5.5 million early and mail ballots cast by early November, down about three percentage points from the comparable point in 2024. In North Carolina, the Republican share of accepted early and mail ballots fell to 26.1 percent from 33.2 percent at the same stage two years earlier. Pennsylvania’s mail-ballot returns showed registered Republicans at 25.1 percent, down nearly eight points from the 2024 comparable point. Across multiple states, Democrats held larger early-vote leads relative to 2024 than they had held in the presidential year.

The turnout differential appeared in raw vote totals in several high-profile Senate races that flipped. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico received approximately 5.45 million to 5.62 million votes against Republican Ken Paxton’s roughly 4.25 million. Two years earlier, Republican Sen. Ted Cruz had received about 5.99 million votes while Democrat Colin Allred received about 5.03 million. Talarico’s midterm total exceeded Allred’s 2024 presidential-year total, while Paxton ran more than 1.7 million votes behind Cruz’s benchmark. Similar gaps between 2026 Republican candidates and 2024 Republican benchmarks were reported in other contests that changed party control.

Exit polling and analyses of key races also indicated higher relative participation among groups that had supported Republicans in 2024, including some Latino and rural voters, who turned out at lower rates in 2026. Total Democratic votes in several Senate contests exceeded the Democratic presidential totals from 2024 in those states, while Republican candidates fell short of prior Republican benchmarks. Absolute turnout declined for both parties from the presidential year, as is typical, but the decline was steeper on the Republican side. Full certified national figures broken out by party will take additional time to finalize as states complete their canvass.