Hormuz Ship Transits Surge as Ceasefire Takes Hold, Many Vessels Run Dark

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has risen sharply in recent weeks following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, with estimates showing dozens of vessels crossing daily. Many are operating with transponders disabled, complicating precise tracking but signaling a return toward normal operations in the critical waterway that handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade.

Pre-conflict averages stood at approximately 100 to 135 vessels per day. During the height of tensions earlier in 2026, traceable transits via automatic identification system data dropped to as low as one or two ships daily in some periods. Recent data shows a marked rebound. Lloyd’s List Intelligence recorded 258 vessel movements, including dark voyages, for the week ending June 28, 2026, compared to just 41 in the crisis’s early weeks. Commercial trackers and military assessments indicate daily crossings now reaching 24 to 40 vessels in recent days, with some reports noting rebounds to 40 on individual days amid the fragile truce.

A significant portion of this traffic involves “dark voyages,” where ships switch off AIS transponders to avoid detection and targeting risks. This practice leads commercial tracking platforms to undercount actual movements. U.S. military surveillance, using broader air, sea, and space assets, has captured higher volumes than AIS-dependent reports. Industry analysts note that while some vessels transit visibly via U.S.-escorted southern routes near Oman, others use Iranian-designated northern paths or proceed with transponders off, contributing to the gap between reported and estimated totals.

The increase follows the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade and implementation of the 60-day ceasefire framework. Oil exports have resumed from Gulf producers, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait. Iranian exports have also moved forward under temporary arrangements, with reports of roughly 40 million barrels shipped since the blockade eased. Spot charter rates for very large crude carriers have declined from peaks near $500,000 per day to around $294,000, while war-risk insurance premiums have eased from 7% to about 2% of vessel value. Brent crude prices have stabilized near pre-conflict levels.

Despite the uptick, risks remain. An estimated 80 naval mines laid by Iran in principal lanes have not been fully cleared, prompting some vessels to use alternative corridors. The International Maritime Organization and shipping groups have highlighted ongoing hazards, with operators balancing commercial pressures against security concerns. BIMCO safety officials have noted that some owners appear willing to accept added risk to move cargo.

The surge in Hormuz transits reflects reduced disruptions to global energy flows and a gradual restoration of confidence in the strategic chokepoint. Full normalization will depend on sustained de-escalation, mine clearance, and clear navigation protocols agreed by all parties.