Gulf Crude Exports Top a Pre-War Baseline as Iranian Loadings Stop

Gulf crude exports climbed back above a pre-war baseline in the final week of September, while Iranian loadings have effectively stopped, according to tanker-tracking data from Kpler.

Kpler figures cited by CNBC and Gulf News put regional crude exports at about 16.5 million barrels a day on average in September. The seven-day average then jumped to roughly 19.5 million barrels a day in the last week of the month, above a pre-war baseline of about 17 million barrels a day.

That weekly spike is not the same as the monthly total. Reuters, citing Kpler data published Sept. 28, put exports from key Middle East producers at 16.328 million barrels a day for September, the highest since the U.S.-Iran war began in late February and about 3.2 million barrels a day below February’s 19.513 million.

The Guardian, also citing Kpler, reported that about 40 percent of regional crude is now moving on routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, compared with about 17 percent before the war. Saudi Arabia can send oil west through the East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea. The United Arab Emirates can move crude to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.

Saudi shipments led the rebound. Kpler data cited by Reuters showed Saudi crude exports at about 5.4 million barrels a day in September, up from 2.446 million in August. Loadings at Ras Tanura, the kingdom’s main Gulf terminal, rose to about 3.25 million barrels a day from 929,000. Kpler counted 19 very large crude carriers, each carrying about 2 million barrels of Saudi oil, exiting Hormuz in a single week.

Flows through the strait itself recovered as well. Kpler put September crude movements through Hormuz at about 9.719 million barrels a day, including ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, up from levels as low as 2.2 million barrels a day in late July. CNBC, citing a later Kpler readout, said crude transiting Hormuz reached a seven-day average of 13.5 million barrels a day as of Monday, matching a pre-war baseline for the waterway.

The recovery is not a return to normal traffic. Iran has continued to fire on tankers. More than 70 percent of the crude that crossed Hormuz in August switched ships off the coast of the UAE or Oman, Kpler told CNBC. The figures also exclude vessels that may have crossed with their tracking transponders switched off.

Iran’s own barrels are not in the rebound. Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi said Iranian crude loadings have effectively hit zero. Loadings had already fallen from 893,000 barrels a day in July to 156,000 barrels a day through Aug. 17. Iran International reported that no new Iranian crude cargo has crossed the U.S. blockade line toward Asian markets since mid-July. TankerTrackers data indicated Iranian terminals were inactive for crude loadings through September.

Iran had about 67 million barrels sitting on tankers in southern waters by mid-August, Kpler said, but a shortage of empty ships made new loadings harder. Stocks already outside the blockade, most of them bound for China, have fallen to about 15 million barrels from 29 million in early September. Kpler expects those barrels to be drawn down by early to mid-October at the current pace.

Falakshahi said Iranian production may now be around 1.8 million barrels a day, roughly enough for domestic use and about half of pre-war output. Before the war, Iran exported roughly 2 million barrels a day of crude and products combined, according to Kpler. Asian buyers had been taking about 1.5 million barrels a day of Iranian crude over the prior year. Oil that cannot be loaded does not reach those buyers.

Refined products have not recovered with crude. Kpler data cited by the Guardian put refined-product shipments through Hormuz at a seven-day average of about 677,000 barrels a day, against about 3.6 million before the war. Crude and products together were about 80 percent of the Hormuz pre-war baseline. JPMorgan has separately assessed broader Gulf export volumes at about 98 percent of pre-war levels, a wider measure than Kpler’s crude tally.

The split is the measurable result of seven months of war and blockade. Gulf producers are moving more oil around Hormuz. Iran’s export line is not.