Emerson Poll Shows VP Vance and Sec. Rubio Virtually Tied in Early 2028 GOP Primary Field
The May 2026 poll found Vance at 36% support and Rubio at 35% among likely GOP primary voters.
Tommy Flynn
Washington, D.C. – Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are running nearly even among Republican primary voters in the latest Emerson College Polling survey on the 2028 presidential race.
The May 2026 poll found Vance at 36% support and Rubio at 35% among likely GOP primary voters. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley each received 5%, with 15% undecided.
This marks a sharp shift from Emerson’s February 2026 survey, where Vance led 52% to Rubio’s 20%. Rubio has gained significant ground, particularly among voters over 50, leading Vance 41% to 35% in that group. Vance holds a lead among those under 50, 37% to 26%.
The survey, conducted May 24-25, 2026, among 432 likely Republican primary voters, carries a credibility interval of approximately 4.7 points.
Emerson Executive Director Spencer Kimball noted: “The Republican primary has shifted significantly since February... the potential 2028 contenders now compete evenly.”
The results reflect Rubio’s elevated profile as Secretary of State amid ongoing foreign policy challenges, including the Iran situation, while Vance maintains strong support from the MAGA base. Early polling this far out remains fluid.
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