Democrat Narrowly Flips Longtime Republican Pennsylvania House Seat After Mail-In Ballots Reverse Election Day Lead

Democrat Brandon Dukes defeated Republican Scott Timko by 88 votes in a special election for Pennsylvania’s 12th House District on Tuesday, flipping a seat that Republicans had held for nearly three decades and that President Donald Trump carried by 18 points in 2024.

Unofficial results from Butler County showed Dukes with 8,434 votes to Timko’s 8,346. The outcome hinged on a sharp divergence between Election Day voting and mail-in ballots. Timko carried the in-person vote on Election Day by a comfortable margin of 6,559 to 4,885, a lead of 1,674 votes. Once mail-in ballots were counted, Dukes posted a 3,549 to 1,787 advantage, a margin of 1,762 that erased the Republican lead and produced the final result.

The district, which includes portions of southwestern Butler County such as Cranberry Township, Adams Township, Jackson Township, and the boroughs of Zelienople, Mars, and Evans City, has long been considered solidly Republican. Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by roughly 53 percent to 30 percent. The seat was previously held by Republican Daryl Metcalfe for many years and more recently by Stephenie Scialabba, who resigned earlier this year, triggering the special election. Turnout reached 31.9 percent, with 16,825 ballots cast among 52,745 registered voters. Seventy-three provisional ballots remain outstanding, and county officials have been consulting attorneys on whether an automatic recount provision applies.

Dukes, a Cranberry resident and commercial loan administrator, described the result as historic, noting that the district had remained in Republican hands for almost 30 years and that Trump had won it decisively. Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro praised the outcome as evidence of voters pushing back against Republican policies. Timko, a retired Air Force captain and commercial pilot, had campaigned on energy development, lower taxes, school choice, and immigration enforcement.

The vote split—strong Republican performance among Election Day voters followed by a decisive Democratic edge in mail-in ballots—mirrors a pattern that has appeared in multiple closely contested races across the country in recent cycles. In each instance, early in-person tallies favored Republicans, only for the final outcome to shift after mail-in and absentee ballots were tabulated. The narrow margin in this deep-red district has intensified scrutiny of the differing voter bases that turn out in person versus by mail.

Both candidates are scheduled to face each other again in the November general election for the full two-year term. The special-election result temporarily adds a Democratic seat in the closely divided Pennsylvania House while the certification process and any potential recount continue.