Danish Intel Flags Rising Risk of Limited Russian Strike on NATO; CIA Had Already Warned Moscow

Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service said Thursday that Russia is likely to intensify hybrid attacks on the West in the coming months and that there is a “low but growing risk” of a limited military attack on one or more NATO countries that border Russia. A full-scale invasion of a NATO state remains “highly unlikely,” the service said, and would take months of visible force buildup. NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, U.S. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, called the Danish paper “quite well-balanced.” Denmark also raised its cyber-threat level, saying destructive Russian cyberattacks are “likely.” The Russian Embassy in Copenhagen said warnings about hybrid warfare are being “ignored” and denied involvement.

DDIS Director Thomas Ahrenkiel said Moscow’s aim would not be to occupy a country but to “divide NATO.” Possible limited attacks, he said, include isolated long-range drone or missile strikes on infrastructure used to support Ukraine, false-flag operations with Ukrainian-made drones, or a small troop move into a border area under the pretext of protecting Russian-speaking minorities. The nine-page assessment said hybrid activity — sabotage, cyber operations that “cripple societal functions,” and attacks with a high risk of casualties — will become more frequent and more damaging than earlier incidents. The service said it sees no prospect of a significant Russian breakthrough in Ukraine over the next six months. A Russian frigate last week fired flares toward a Danish helicopter photographing it in international waters; one flare narrowly missed the aircraft, the Danish military said. Germany has blamed Russia for explosive-laden drones at Leipzig Airport. Poland scrambled jets after a Russian helicopter entered its airspace.

Those findings sit on top of an August U.S. warning delivered in person. CIA Director John Ratcliffe made an unannounced trip to Moscow and met FSB chief Alexander Bortnikov. People briefed on the visit told the Wall Street Journal, Politico, and CBS that Ratcliffe told Russian officials not to attack or test NATO, with particular focus on Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. He also pressed Moscow to cut military and economic support for Iran. U.S. assessments circulating before the trip said Putin, stalled in Ukraine, might use an “escalate to de-escalate” move — sabotage, cyber or drone attacks, or a small land grab — to shake allied support for Kyiv. Officials said there was no intelligence of an imminent conventional assault. President Trump called the visit “semi-routine” and said it was about ending the Ukraine war. The Kremlin said Ratcliffe did not see Putin. Ukraine was asked to pause strikes on Russian cities during the trip. European spy chiefs speaking to The Guardian in September used a similar window: “months, not years.” Latvia’s security chief said he saw no sign of an imminent attack. Under Article 5, an armed attack on one ally is treated as an attack on all.