California Republicans Surge in Early Voting, Signaling Strong Enthusiasm and a Potential Path to Governor’s Office

SACRAMENTO — Republicans are showing significantly higher-than-expected early voting turnout in California’s June 2026 primary, with GOP ballots making up roughly 34-37% of returns so far — an 8-11 point increase compared to the same point in 2022 — while Democratic participation has dropped notably.

According to data compiled by Political Data Inc. and county elections offices, more than 900,000 ballots have been returned statewide. Republicans are outperforming their registration share in many areas, driven largely by older, conservative, and homeowner voters. Democratic early returns are down about 7-13 points from 2022 levels, reflecting widespread disillusionment with one-party rule, rising costs, crime, and homelessness.

The surge has fueled optimism among California Republicans that they could secure a spot in the November general election — and potentially win the governorship for the first time since Arnold Schwarzenegger’s 2006 reelection. Under California’s top-two primary system, the two highest vote-getters advance regardless of party. A strong Republican showing combined with a fragmented Democratic field could produce a GOP vs. GOP or competitive GOP vs. Democrat matchup in November.

GOP candidates Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco have energized the base with campaigns focused on reversing progressive policies on public safety, education, taxes, and housing. President Trump has endorsed Hilton, adding national momentum.

Democrats remain favored overall due to the state’s deep-blue registration advantage, but internal divisions and voter fatigue have created a rare opening. The last Republican governor was Schwarzenegger, who won reelection in 2006 before term limits and a string of Democratic victories.

Party leaders say sustained turnout through Election Day on June 2 could deliver a historic breakthrough. Final results will be certified in mid-June, but the early numbers have already shifted the race dynamics and boosted Republican morale heading into the critical 2026 cycle.