Berkeley Poll Puts Raman 11 Points Ahead of Bass; Prediction Markets Flip to the Challenger

A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times shows City Councilmember Nithya Raman leading Mayor Karen Bass 39 percent to 28 percent among likely Los Angeles voters, with 33 percent still undecided. The online poll of 2,150 likely city voters ran Sept. 15–20 and has a margin of error of about 3 percentage points. Mail ballots for the Nov. 3 runoff go out in October.

The result is Raman’s strongest Berkeley IGS showing. In the June primary Bass finished first with 34 percent, Raman second with 29 percent, and reality-television personality Spencer Pratt third with about 26 percent. Raman had trailed Bass in nearly every public poll during the primary. Poll director Mark DiCamillo said Raman “clearly has the advantage” and that Bass’s image is “highly negative, much more negative than Raman.” Bass’s favorability is 28 percent favorable and 63 percent unfavorable. Raman is 40 percent favorable and 39 percent unfavorable. Fifty-six percent of respondents rated Bass’s handling of the January 2025 Palisades Fire as poor or very poor. The fire killed 12 people and destroyed thousands of homes. The Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority’s latest count found unsheltered homelessness up nearly 8 percent citywide. Raman chairs the council’s homelessness committee; her office has cited a 49 percent drop in unsheltered homelessness in Council District 4.

The poll shows a sharp age split. Raman leads 66 percent to 4 percent among likely voters 18 to 29 and 64 percent to 12 percent among those 30 to 39. Bass leads 41 percent to 21 percent among voters 65 and older. Raman is ahead in most of the city. Bass leads in South Los Angeles and the Harbor area, 37 percent to 34 percent. In the San Fernando Valley Raman is at 34 percent, Bass 26 percent, and 40 percent undecided. DiCamillo said many of the undecided voters backed Pratt in June; Fox 11 reported 63 percent of Pratt primary voters have not picked a runoff candidate. More than 217,000 people voted for Pratt. Raman has been endorsed by the Los Angeles chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America. NBC Los Angeles noted that endorsement in its write-up of the survey.

Prediction markets moved with the poll. On Kalshi, Raman’s contract rose to about 58 percent implied chance of winning and Bass fell to about 42 percent. Traders there priced Raman’s expected victory margin at roughly 10.3 points. On Polymarket, Raman was near 58 percent and Bass near 41.5 percent, with about $1.96 million in open interest on Raman’s contract. In June those same markets had priced Bass in the low-to-mid 60s. An August “poll” from Median Strategies that showed Bass ahead by about 12 points was later withdrawn. The firm said it was a “short-term social experiment,” not a real survey. Bass’s campaign had shared that figure, then deleted the post.

Raman called the new numbers reason to “earn your vote.” Bass said she does not view Raman as the front-runner and that “this is going to be a tight race.” DiCamillo said neither candidate has yet laid out a full four-year vision and that 41 days remained when the poll was published.